Thursday, August 18, 2011

From Good to Great.

If "even the mighty can fall", how do organisations ensure they tread carefully each step to go from being good to great and maintain their greatness to last. According to Jim Collins in his team's research findings in the books "Good to Great" and "Built to Last", there are 4 stages to transit from being good to great and to continue in greatness.

Stage 1: Disciplined people.
Stage 2: Disciplined thought.
Stage 3: Disciplined action.
Stage 4: Building greatness to last.

Stage 1: Disciplined people

Great lasting organisations have continual succession of level 5 leadership to carry on guiding their people and organisation towards greatness. Level 5 leaders are not commonly found (looking at how few the number of great organisations that have truly stand the test of time). Level 5 leaders are highly ambitious, but not for themselves. They are ambitious in championing the mission and purpose of their organisation. They will do whatever it takes to live out the mission and purpose of their organisation and ensures others in their organisation do likewise. Such level 5 leaders are humble but possess an exceptionally strong will to ensure their organisation work their best to live out their mission and purpose they are serving. Such level 5 leaders in their humility, look not inwardly to themselves for personal gains, but instead look outwards to build the best out of their people and organisation.

Great lasting organisations ensure they have the right people in their organisation (people who live out their organisational values, mission and purpose). They focus first and foremost on recruiting the right people to their key seats before deciding what these right people should do. The right people in key positions will naturally work together to ensure they take their organisation in the direction of fulfiling their mission and purpose. The wrong people in the organisation who do not live out the values, mission and purpose are promptly taken off the organisation.


Stage 2: Disciplined thought

Great lasting organisations do not avoid any confrontations of their problems and difficulties. They will do whatever they can to deal with and find solutions to their most brutal problems, mistakes and difficulties they face.

Such organisations also stick to the "hedgehog concept". The hedgehog concept embodies three principles:-
1. Continue to do what one can be the best in the world at doing (and keep improving in doing it).
2. Continue to do what one is deeply passionate about.
3. Continue to do what best drives one's economic or resource engine.


Stage 3: Disciplined action 

Great lasting organisations have disciplined people. Such organisations enjoy a culture of freedom as their disciplined people work within a framework of responsibilities. Disciplined people take on responsibilities instead of jobs.

Such organisations function as though they are pushing steadily onto a giant flywheel, making turns upon turns, building up the momentum of the flywheel until they see a breakthrough. They are not hasty in trying to make quick breakthroughs with some grandiose program or actions. They understand the need to carefully build up their organisation towards greatness.


Stage 4: Building greatness to last

Great lasting organisations are built through many generations of level 5 leaders in succession. Level 5 leaders over many generations have built into their organisation mechanisms that stimulate progress. The success of the organisation does not depend solely upon the charisma of any one single leader or great idea. 

Such organisations are able to continue in existence as they remain in living out their core values, mission and purpose which stand the test of time. However, they are also able to make significant progress by constantly adapting to the changing world in their operating strategies and cultural practices. 


Conclusion

Building a great lasting organisation requires discipline, humility and a strong professional will of it's people to live out a set of timeless core values to commit to greatness in fulfilling meaningful purpose(s) in it's service. 


Disciplined people. Disciplined thought. Disciplined action. Building greatness to last.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

How even the mighty can fall!

I like the series of books written by Jim Collins, "Built to Last", "From Good to Great" and "How the Mighty Fall". This series of books has it's content based on solid extensive research of examples of companies that succeed and fall. It gives a good insight into how some companies can become great and long lasting well known names, while others go into oblivion. 

In this book, "How the Mighty Fall", I am impressed again by how Jim shared about their team's research findings of how every company, whether small or large enterprises can suffer the fate of becoming obselete and non-existent if they are not careful about continuing to be commited to being great.

The fall of any company, small and great alike according to Jim Collins seems to go through five stages (though some companies may not encounter all of 5 stages before capitulation to death), namely:-

Stage 1: Hubris Born of Success.
Stage 2: Undisciplined Pursuit of More.
Stage 3: Denial of Risk and Peril.
Stage 4: Grasping for Salvation.
Stage 5: Capitulation to Irrelevance or Death.

Stage 1 (Hubris Born of Success)

A search of the word 'Hubris' from Wikipedia comes up with the following meaning, " extreme haughtiness, pride or arrogance. Hubris often indicates a loss of contact with reality and an overestimation of one's own competence or capabilities, especially when the person exhibiting it is in a position of power."

These are various symptoms of stage 1 (Hubris Born of Success) in any organisations. Organisations may not display all of the symptoms, but many of them may be found in this early stage 1 of decline. Symptoms include people in an organisation taking success in their organisation for granted, believing that success in their organisation will continue indefinitely, no matter what they do or not do.

Leaders in an organisation become distracted from constantly strengthening and improving upon the core business that the organisation is already strong in doing. Leaders get distracted by pursuing new adventures, opportunities or being too absorbed in thinking about non-essential threats to their organisation.

The people in the organisation may also tend towards the "what and how" their success came about instead of cherishing "why" they got their success. People lose focus on their core values, mission and purpose of their organisation that got them successful in the first place and instead just base their success on their ability to carry out specific things or tasks in their organisation.

There is also a loss of learning culture in such organisations in stage 1 of decline. Since understanding of success is now based on what things and tasks to carry out, there is no longer any growth in pursuing learning. The organisation can only maintain status quo, and be at most as good as when their learning last stopped. Keep in mind that there is no such thing as 100% complete knowledge. The World contains a vast amount of knowledge beyond measure. The only successful individual or organisation is one that is constantly learning new things and value adding to themselves and others they serve.

Furthermore, such organisation in stage 1 of decline thinks highly of themselves, that they owe their success solely to the superior qualities of their organisation and leadership, instead of adopting humility and acknowledging that their success may have also arised from good circumstances and turn of events.


Stage 2 (Undisciplined Pursuit of More)

Organisations that proceed to stage 2 of decline confuse growth with becoming great. Such organisations in a bid to become great overstretch their people, systems and operations beyond what they can bear. Often, the dramatic actions such organisations carry out do not fit into their core values and do not enhance their core business. 

Such organisations also lose the right people in important positions that ensures the success of the organisation. When pursuing undisciplined growth, organisations may also not be able to fill up enough right people into important positions as they grow and expand.

Such organisations in pursuit of undisciplined growth, may also respond to increasing cost of operations by increasing their prices of products or services to maintain profit margin instead of increasing their discipline at questioning carefully whether their growth is good growth or bad growth.

There is also an increase in bureaucracy in such organisations marked by rules governing actions, instead of maintaining a culture of freedom of expression fueled by strong cherished responsibility of every individual in the organisation, seeing that they do their best to be responsible for their work rather than seeing their work only as a 'job' they have no choice but to complete.

Furthermore, such organisations also face poor succession of leadership. There is no excellent succession plan in mind, no grooming of talented individuals within the organisation who live out the core values and purpose of the organisation for taking over the helm of the organisation.

People in organisations facing stage 2 decline may also look to their own personal interests more than the organisational interests. People pursue personal fame, popularity and power in the organisation more than investing their time in building up their organisation towards greatness for the long term.


Stage 3 (Denial of Risk and Peril) 

In organisations facing the next stage of decline, there is a tendency to ignore the negative warnings (in the form of any negative data) that surface within the organisation. Leaders tend to also highlight every positive results to receive praises and publicity while ignoring or discounting any potential negative warnings in their organisation. 

Leaders also tend to pursue big ambitious goals that are not founded on good analysis and past experiences. When presented with vague data that do not support well the pursuit of an ambitious goal or decision, leaders choose to ignore the potential significant downside while taking an overly optimsitic view of their decision which is not founded on good thought and analysis.

There is also a tendency towards a dictatorial style of leadership for organisations in stage 3 of decline. There is no evidence of much healthy debate or discussions when making decisions. People become mere followers of one or two leaders, and there is no generation of much ideas and opinions to ensure the best ideas and opinions can benefit the organisation.

Leaders in such organisations also push failures and mistakes to being caused by external factors and other people. They do not take any blame for their poor leadership.

When organisations are faced with stage 3 decline, they do not confront their problems and external conditions face on. Instead, people in such organisations are entangled in politics while their organisation keep reorganising in a bid to deal with their problems.

Furthermore, leaders in such organisations also face much detachment from their people in the organisation. They may get caught up with their executive status (good bonuses and nice offices) more than cherishing their commitment and responsibility to build their people and organisation.  


Stage 4 (Grasping for Salvation)

Organisations in stage 4 of decline keep trying out different strategies and programs or acqusitions in a bid to get themselves back on progress. The leaders indulge in ways to motivate their organisation with buzzwords or taglines. However, they do not have a solid recovery long term plan in mind. So, there is inconsistency in that their strategies for salvation keep on changing in a series of highly-sought after silver bullets.

Often, such organisations employ an outside leader (CEO) as a saviour who is charismatic in a bid to help the organisation turn around.

The people in such organisations often display habits of panic and uncertainty instead of discipline and a calm resolve to support their organisation to make a turn around.

Leaders refuse to acknowledge their current underperformance. Instead, they try to sell their people the vision of a bright future admist the difficult times that the organisation is currently facing that may potentially lead to their permanent downfall.

There may be some respite when the series of random silver bullets are carried out in a bid to save the organisation, but these positive changes are not lasting. There is no real build up of recovery momentum in the organisation.

When an organisation has reached this stage of decline, the people in the organisation have lost their cherished core values in the organisation. They no longer remember and understand what is the values, mission and purpose of their organisation, why their organisation exist in the first place.

In a bid to save such organisations by administering random inconsistent strategies and programs, together with organisational restructurings, with each strategy being carried out, the resources (financial and manpower etc.) of the organisation are further drained out. This accelerates the decline of the organisation.


Stage 5 (Capitulation to Irrelevance or Death)

As organisations reach stage 5 of decline, the certainty of death of an organisation is pronounced. Organisations in this stage of decline keep deteriorating as cash continues to tighten and hope disappears.

Such organisations should prepare for their death by doing what is best for their employees and shareholders with whatever limited resources left. This may involve returning whatever left over cash as compensations to their employees and shareholders after settling all debts. Some organisations facing impending death may seek a take over by another suitable company. Hopefully, with the take over, the already fallen organisation may be injected into good hands of the acquirer.


Conclusion

The rise and fall of great enterprises is fascinating. Any organisation should continue to exist and seek to become great in fulfiling their values, mission and purpose. Once an organisation can no longer serve great meaningful mission and purpose (in the provision of their products and/or services to value add to their market they are serving) thus securing their competitive advantage as market leaders, the organisation will proceed with most certainty the path of decline followed by death. This happens when another organisation which is better able to live out their values to serve similar meaningful mission and purpose takes over from the dying organisation.



All creatures (or organisations) small and large can fall when they do not tread each step carefully. It is alright to encounter small slips sometimes when each slip provides a learning lesson. The danger comes when one ignores the slips and never learn to walk properly which eventually leads to a great fall to one's death.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Leverage - A double edged sword!

Leverage is a neutral tool available to the investor. It neither favours helping the investor nor harming him. It is a double edged sword. The outcome of using leverage depends on how it is being used by the investor. So, the investor solely controls and is responsible for the outcome of using leverage, whether leverage will help or harm him.

Leverage is powerful in magnifying returns for the investor when it is used in certain situations and on the other hand destructive in magnifying losses when used in uncertain situations. Thus, leverage is a double edged sword and the wielder of this sword has to be trained in understanding how the sword can be used safety so as to help an experienced and knowledgeable wielder of the sword and not harm an unwary novice wielder instead.

One situation that poses uncertainty in using leverage is in trading of stocks. Stock prices fluctuate and when an investor is taking a position to long a stock or short a stock, there is no certainty that the stock will indeed rise (in the case of longing) or fall (in the case of shorting). No matter how an investor can boast of using technical analytic tools as a basis to enter into a trade, there is no absolute certainty that he can always have his way in terms of predicting the exact movement of a stock price. Thus, we hear of the saying "stop loss" and "cut loss" which are simply measures to minimise the impact of loss due to a stock price moving contrary to what is expected by an investor. In such uncertain situation of stock price movement, there is a hidden potential of leverage unleashing it's destructive nature despite having "stop loss" and "cut loss" measures in place as an investor cannot control stock price movements. As soon as a loss is incurred no matter big or small, leverage will magnify the losses further. 

However, in special situations such as a high probability of an arbitrage deal being completed, much risk would have been removed though a small risk that the deal may not be completed is still inherent as one cannot remove all risks. In addition, the more certain an investor can ascertain the time of completion of an arbitrage deal, he will be able to determine his adjusted projected annual rate of return (see previous post "A look at arbitrage deals using arbitrage risk equation from Benjamin Graham."). Using leverage in such certain arbitrage deal situations will help to magnify the returns for an investor.

I shall present here an example of how leverage can be used in such certain arbitrage deal situations. ABC company offers to buy all shares of DEF company at $10 per share in an acquisition exercise. DEF company agrees to tender all it's shares to ABC company at this price. Public announcements have been made by both companies and many investors of DEF company have tendered their shares and there is no objections from any major investors to block the acquisition. The acquisition exercise is expected to close in four months. Immediately after the public announcement, shares of DEF company are trading at around $ 9.70 per share.

For an investor who bought DEF shares immediately after the public announcement at around $9.70 per share, he will stand to make a return of about 3% in four months when the deal closes. His annual rate of return will be approximately 9%.


                                         = 3% in four months

                                           Annual rate of return = 3 X 3% = 9%

An annual rate of return of 9% may not make this deal overly attractive. However, the situation becomes different when leverage comes into the picture. Imagine that an investor can finance the buying of shares of DEF company at 8% borrowing interest rate per annum. This equates to a borrowing interest rate of around 2.7% for the four months period of the arbitrage deal. This translates to an interest cost at around $0.27.

Interest cost for the four months = 2.7% X cost of shares
                                                         = 2.7% X $9.70
                                                         = $0.27

Having an interest cost of around $0.27 per share and a potential profit of $0.30 per share from the arbitrage deal ($10 - $9.70 = $0.30), there will be a projected profit of $0.03 per share ($0.30 - $0.27 = $0.03).

Note that the cost of a share of DEF company is $9.70 per share, but the investor using leverage is borrowing this $9.70 at an interest cost of $0.27. So, his real investment cost is only $0.27 per share. He will earn a projected profit of $0.03 per share from our earlier calculations.

Thus, his rate of return for the four months is approximately 11%.


                                                                                    = 11% for four months

This translates to a whopping annual rate of return of 33% (11% X 3 = 33% in a year). With leverage, the investor can receive an annual rate of return of 33% compared to without leverage at an annual rate of return of 9%. His actual rate of return in four months time from the arbitrage deal is also higher at 11% with leverage compared to 3% without leverage. In this case, using leverage will approximately triple his returns in the same time period.

In conclusion, certainty when combined with leverage greatly magnifies returns for an investor. When leverage is used in certain situations such as a very high probability of consummation of an arbitrage deal within an announced known time period to completion of deal, an investor can determine his projected profit for the time period with high certainty. Leverage can thus be used as a powerful tool to greatly magnify an investor's returns in situations of high certainty. Wield this double edged sword properly with understanding and knowledge and it will greatly reward it's careful user.  

Leverage - A double edged sword!
To the knowledgeable wielder who wields the sword (leverage) with understanding, it rewards him greatly!