Friday, October 8, 2010

Wearing FA "lens" and TA "lens".......seeing from two different angles of the same market

We have heard of both fundamental analysis (FA) and technical analysis (TA) used by investors (be it retail or professional investors) as working principles of doing stock investments or other forms of investments. More often, we hear also the debate behind the effectiveness of one of these skills over the other in getting investment performance. I have always stayed on a neutral stance though I am applying fundamental analysis in making my investment decisions. I have also researched on TA, though not very extensive yet. I have now got a better appreciation of TA. However, I am not an expert in terms of knowing the inside out of this set of skills.

My discovery so far is that FA and TA are both useful and should be used in conjunction when making investment decisions. The danger is to swing to either side totally, be it TA or FA, and ignore the realities of the one side of the same story (the story about the investment one is making decision on). FA tracks the fundamentals of a company, it's historical business performance and future projected performance based on track record. TA tracks the market sentiments (usually short term basis) towards the performance of the company and it's share price. In doing so, TA also takes into account the larger market in view too (based on ongoing macroeconomics). If one thinks the share price of an excellent company based on FA is undervalued but bought at a time when impending correction of a significant magnitude is likely going to take place based on TA, undervalue can get more undervalue. So, TA does have it's merits and both FA and TA should be used in conjunction to be more effective.

The decision making process need not be complicated and clouded by one skill, be it FA or TA over the other. These two skill sets are not contracdictory in nature. They are just skill sets for the investor to use. The investor is the one who manages the use of these two sets to the best of their use so as to make the best possible investment decision at a particular point of time. By doing so, the investment decision hopefully is better thought out in thoroughness. So, I will not say I use FA or TA. I will say I use my prudence in making investment decisions. FA or TA, both are just skill sets for the investor to use, and both are effective and makes investment decision making more thorough if the investor is careful not to be confused emotionally by the use of one technique or the other. 

Just a parting note, in a bear market like last time, no amount of FA can save an investor from watching his portfolio depreciate sharply in value. In such occasional moments, probably TA can offer help in terms of allowing the FA investor to put on another pair of lens to look from the other side of the same situation to make his investment decision on how to navigate the bear market. Wear FA lens or TA lens to see the market? Both exist for the same reason, to allow the practioner of the skill set to garner good returns from making his investment decisions. The trick lies in the user, not the type of "lens" as both lens can and should be used..........

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